United Ireland: Will it happen in your lifetime? What are the main issues?
![United Ireland: Will it happen in your lifetime? What are the main issues? United Ireland: Will it happen in your lifetime? What are the main issues?](/cms_media/module_img/7544/3772452_1_articlesmall_untitled-design-93.jpg)
Eva Osborne
On Tuesday, Tánaiste Simon Harris said he does not expect there will be a referendum on Irish unity within this decade, while he has previously stated that it is entirely possible that there could be a united Ireland in his lifetime.
Sinn Féin has pushed for a unity referendum to be called this decade. But, when asked if he thinks that will happen, Harris said: “That’s not my expectation.”
So, how likely is it that you will see a united Ireland in your lifetime? And what are the key issues that would need to be addressed in advance of a referendum on the matter?
Speaking to BreakingNews.ie, Professor of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin, Lisa Keenan, laid out the economic, social, and cultural issues that a united Ireland would face.
A new flag, a new national anthem
Keenan explained that cultural issues, which are "not minor issues", would need to be carefully considered.
“Like, to what extent are people happy to adopt a new flag? Are they happy to adopt a new educational system? A new national anthem? All these things are really important and would need to be considered in advance of a vote," she said.
"But the biggest thing would be the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. Is it a case of taking the integrated model, whereby effectively Northern Ireland is just folded into the existing institutional arrangement that we have in the Republic of Ireland?
"Do the parties contesting in Northern Ireland for elections end up sitting in Dáil Éireann? Or do we have this devolved model, whereby the government in Dublin just replace the government in Westminster?
"These are really the critical issues and it would be really important to think about how to get consent across communities in Northern Ireland, but equally among the people in the Republic of Ireland.”
'There's a big problem equating Catholicism with Nationalism'
Keenan explained that, when looking at polling data, the majority in Northern Ireland do not currently favour a United Ireland, but it matters how questions are worded.
"What we have, kind of consistently, is around one third of people supporting a united Ireland. So that's a long way off a majority, and you would want a majority to be in evidence over time. We also have around 10 to 15 per cent that are undecided.
"If you look at the demographics as well, it’s a little bit tricky, but if you look just at the Catholic population from the 2021 census, it's 42.3 per cent of the population. So that isn't a majority.
"There’s also a big problem with inferring that because someone identifies as Catholic, that they also are identifying as nationalists and in favour of a united Ireland.
"And if you look at political identity, which we can look at through the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, you know it's been stable for the past few years and what we have is 28 percent of people who are identifying themselves as nationalists. So the circumstances aren't in place at the moment."
Keenan said it is the case that in terms of the commitment to the principle of a united Ireland in the Republic of Ireland, that has been "high and consistently high over time".
Economy and healthcare
The economy is a major issue when looking at the possibility of a united Ireland, Keenan said.
"There was of course that report last year that came out with a ballpark figure of how much a united Ireland would cost. One estimate was €20 billion, another estimate was €8 billion, and it’s not at all clear, necessarily, how much it would cost.
"But we would expect that there would be a cost involved. We can look at the reunification of Germany and think about the money that was spent in order to harmonise those two territories but also to bring up the living standards in east Germany to those in west Germany.
"I think certainly we need to think about things like public sector wages - they’re higher in the Republic. So, we would expect there would be harmonisation there right? We don’t pay people less in parts of the country because the cost of living is lower than it would be in maybe Dublin.
"You need to think about benefits. So things like pensions and that, like are they going to be matched up? You would suspect that would be the case. So those kinds of things are reasonably important."
A united Ireland prompting the stimulation of economic growth in the medium to long term is something that would be likely, but Keenan explained that people in the Republic would be thinking about the possible impacts they would be experiencing.
"People would be thinking: 'Is my tax bill going to go up?'," she said.
Keenan explained that the health system would also top the list of questions people would have about what a united Ireland would look like.
"You also have to think about domestic policy. We have two separate health services. So what is the health service going to look like in the event of reunification?
"Is it the case that the Republic would have to roll out a national health service, like the one in Northern Ireland, or what would that look like?"
Neutrality and policing
"Not necessarily talked about as much is policing and security. So, obviously, we know the history of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland creates challenges for policing," Keenan said.
"You need to think about the resources that would be available to continue that kind of policing, but also how would you integrate the police forces? What would that look like?”
Keenan said the Republic's neutrality has not been talked about a lot.
“Currently Northern Ireland, as part of the UK, is a member of Nato and a nuclear power. And Ireland is military neutral, sitting outside Nato, and does not have significant investment in the military.
"Although that did become a little bit of an issue last year and has been talked about in terms of talking about how to quit the Defence Forces, particularly in light of this threat from Russia.
"These are important questions. And they’ll be important questions for people voting in Northern Ireland as well. Do they want to suddenly come out of the Commonwealth, or are people in the Republic of Ireland willing to join the Commonwealth?"
Would there need to be two referendums?
Interestingly, from a constitutional perspective, it appears to be the case that only a vote in the Oireachtas would be required, and the Republic of Ireland would not need to hold a referendum on the matter.
However, Keenan highlighted that it would be unlikely a referendum would not be held in the Republic.
"It certainly is not set out in the Constitution or the Good Friday Agreement that there needs to be a referendum in the Republic of Ireland.
"Now, politically, it would be extremely difficult and perhaps not politically a wise decision not to have a referendum.
"It's probably the case that it would be unifying, it would be a good opportunity to air a lot of concerns that people might have. There is an assumption that there will be two referendums, I think there would be. But then you have to think about, well, would they be done in sequence?
"Certainly it would be difficult, however unlikely, if there was a vote in Northern Ireland that said yes to a united Ireland and then a vote in the Republic said no. That would be extremely tricky.
"So it is likely that what would happen, probably, is that you would have a referendum in Northern Ireland and you would then endorse that with a referendum in the Republic of Ireland. But it’s not clear that we have to have one.”
How would a referendum happen?
It comes down to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to determine when a referendum takes place.
"There isn’t actually a clear set of pieces of data that need to be consulted in order for that to decision to be made. But we know from what we have in the Northern Ireland 1998 Act that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland will call a poll if it appears likely that the majority of those voting support a united Ireland," Keenan said.
"So, what does that mean? Well, there's different ways to measure a majority, so we could look at opinion polling data. That would be one of the pieces of information we’d probably look at.
"We’d probably also look at election results as well. We would also look at demographics, and we probably would also look at other survey data that might be more qualitative in nature.
"We don't know what kind of metrics would be consulted, but those seem to be the most likely ones."
At the moment, Keenan said it is not clear that voters in the Republic of Ireland are aware of the types of changes or compromises that would be necessary to achieve a united Ireland, or indeed that they would be supportive of them either.
"It may be that ultimately the people in the Republic of Ireland are actually happy to compromise in order to achieve this aspiration.
"But at the moment, it isn't clear that there is much understanding about the amount of work that has to be done on so many different levels in order to achieve what is, for the majority of people, an aspiration."
There would need to an extensive campaign for a referendum on a united Ireland, Keenan explained, as referendums offer an opportunity for education to make the consequences clear for the public, and are not just about getting a yes or a no vote.